Unfortunately for me, I am home sick today and the talking television pundits have me bored out of my mind. So... here are my predictions and explanations for election night.
President: I think this will be closer than some think, but the winner will be Obama. As far as electoral count, I will have to go with Obama only winning 305 electoral votes. Here is how I think the swing states will play out:
Obama: Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado, New Hampshire
McCain: Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana, Montana
I believe McCain wins Missouri by less than 1 percent. This will be the first time in a long time Missouri has incorrectly picked the winner.
MO Governor: This is one of the biggest no-brainers in the contest. Nixon will win. SW Missouri has a larger than average affinity for the Democrat. This will propel him to victory. I am guessing the margin will be by about 10 - 12 points. In a state like Missouri, that is huge!
Lt. Governor: This may be also be very,very close. I am going to predict a Kinder win, but by less than 1 percent. If Obama ends up carrying Missouri heavily, then Page may win this.
Secretary of State: This one is going to Robin Carnahan, likely by 13 to 14 percent.
Treasurer: This is my upset of the night. I think Clint Zweifel will win this on the coattails of Nixon by around 1 percent. Both Lager and Zweifel are unknowns statewide. That will mean that people will vote based on party. The Republican mantra is not the best to have right now.
Attorney General: This is the most difficult race to predict. This one has so many facets to it that I don't know how they will play out. Conventional wisdom points one way, but my gut tells me that this race may be won by Gibbons. Neither have a lot of name recognition, but Koster has too many skeletons in his closet. His defection to the Democratic party has angered both sides and I believe that may cost him this race. I think Gibbons wins by 2 points, but this is my "going out on a limb" pick.
7th Congressional District: Contrary to some, I believe this has the potential to be a very close race. I know that yard signs aren't a sure fire way to tell who will win, but in a very conservative community such as this to see triple the amount of signs against Rep. Blunt can't be very encouraging. I think this depends on how Obama does in this region. If Obama picks up 30-40% in this region then I believe this race will be close. I predict Roy Blunt will win, but by about 9 points.
132nd MO House Race: Another close race because both have won races in the past. I believe you have to give this to the incumbent. I believe Ruzicka will win by 5 points. Again, the voting percentages for Obama could impact this race, too.
Amendment 1: Passes
Amendment 4: Fails
Prop A: Fails (but it will be close)
Prop B: Passes
Prop C: Passes (barely)
**So those are my thoughts... what say you?**