Monday, November 3

My Election Predictions

Unfortunately for me, I am home sick today and the talking television pundits have me bored out of my mind. So... here are my predictions and explanations for election night.

President: I think this will be closer than some think, but the winner will be Obama. As far as electoral count, I will have to go with Obama only winning 305 electoral votes. Here is how I think the swing states will play out:
Obama: Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado, New Hampshire
McCain: Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana, Montana
I believe McCain wins Missouri by less than 1 percent. This will be the first time in a long time Missouri has incorrectly picked the winner.

MO Governor: This is one of the biggest no-brainers in the contest. Nixon will win. SW Missouri has a larger than average affinity for the Democrat. This will propel him to victory. I am guessing the margin will be by about 10 - 12 points. In a state like Missouri, that is huge!

Lt. Governor: This may be also be very,very close. I am going to predict a Kinder win, but by less than 1 percent. If Obama ends up carrying Missouri heavily, then Page may win this.

Secretary of State: This one is going to Robin Carnahan, likely by 13 to 14 percent.

Treasurer: This is my upset of the night. I think Clint Zweifel will win this on the coattails of Nixon by around 1 percent. Both Lager and Zweifel are unknowns statewide. That will mean that people will vote based on party. The Republican mantra is not the best to have right now.

Attorney General: This is the most difficult race to predict. This one has so many facets to it that I don't know how they will play out. Conventional wisdom points one way, but my gut tells me that this race may be won by Gibbons. Neither have a lot of name recognition, but Koster has too many skeletons in his closet. His defection to the Democratic party has angered both sides and I believe that may cost him this race. I think Gibbons wins by 2 points, but this is my "going out on a limb" pick.

7th Congressional District: Contrary to some, I believe this has the potential to be a very close race. I know that yard signs aren't a sure fire way to tell who will win, but in a very conservative community such as this to see triple the amount of signs against Rep. Blunt can't be very encouraging. I think this depends on how Obama does in this region. If Obama picks up 30-40% in this region then I believe this race will be close. I predict Roy Blunt will win, but by about 9 points.

132nd MO House Race: Another close race because both have won races in the past. I believe you have to give this to the incumbent. I believe Ruzicka will win by 5 points. Again, the voting percentages for Obama could impact this race, too.

Amendment 1: Passes

Amendment 4: Fails

Prop A: Fails (but it will be close)

Prop B: Passes

Prop C: Passes (barely)

**So those are my thoughts... what say you?**


Anonymous said...

That's a good call on Missouri, i've been looking at it for a while now. Seems an influx of people from the city with different views are moving in and changing the democratic opinion.
McCain has a good chance of winging it tonight and getting that 1% so im not going to bet money on it!

DONNA said...

I agree with most of predictions. We know that places like St. Louis and Kansas City will come out strong for Obama and the rural Southwest Missouri area will lean more for McCain. This is also a record breaking year for new voters and my feeling on that is, there will be more for Obama in that group than for McCain. If McCain wins Missouri, it will be very, very close. I'll be looking forward to seeing the results of your predictions newsy!!!

Anonymous said...

Here is my prediction. Richard Monroe will beat Roy Blunt. It is going to happen. I have seen poll numbers the media hasnt.